Should I Sell Now or Wait For a Better Market?

If you’re already considering selling, waiting for a better market only helps if the future price gain (appreciation) is larger than the risk, and often the more relevant, cost of holding the home longer.

That is the part many sellers miss.

A future sale price can be higher while the seller’s actual improvement is small or negative.

In a best-case scenario, where the market does improve, you’ll likely also face more competing listings, from the sellers also waiting for the “better” market.

So the better question is:

“Would selling next year leave me better off after the costs, risk, and competition of waiting?”

A useful way to look at the trade off is to look at recent single-family home market data from the Greater Phoenix Valley and illustrate it using an example of our friend, Becky.

But first, waiting might be the strategy for some, but why does it always feel safer?

Why Waiting Feels Like the Safer Choice

Often it feels wise to wait, and sometimes it is. Other times, the sense of security that comes with waiting is often not secure at all.

When the market appears slower, mortgage rates are high, buyer activity is uneven or the economy feels uncertain, waiting feels cautious and many homeowners think:

“I’ll sell when rates come down”

“I’ll wait until prices rise”

“Isn’t it a buyer’s market?” (See our most recent take: Is it a buyer’s market or a seller’s market?)

“Next year will be a better time to sell”

Sometimes, waiting does make sense.

But for someone who is considering selling, waiting is not automatically safer.

Let’s take a look.

A $500,000 Example

Consider Becky, a homeowner whose house could sell for about $500,000 today.

Becky wants to move, but she is considering waiting until next year because she believes the market will be better.

Well, let’s say the market does get better and home prices appreciate by 4%. (This is more appreciation than the overall area has seen in the last 4 years based on the broad Phoenix area home index cited below).

A reasonable amount for the Valley, but optimistic nonetheless.

For a $500,000 home, a 4% increase means a future sale price of $520,000.

That is a $20,000 gross increase!

At first glance, waiting sounds like it made Becky $20,000.

However, while Becky waits, she still owns the house and will continue paying the monthly costs of ownership.

With a $2,500 mortgage payment, Becky’s monthly non-recoverable payments and ownership costs might look something like this:

Non-recoverable monthly cost	Monthly amount
Mortgage interest	$2,150
Property taxes	$250
Homeowners insurance	$150
HOA dues	$100
Estimated monthly non-recoverable holding costs	$2,650

Over 12 months, those costs add up to $31,800.

These numbers will look different for each homeowner, but the point is the same: Becky’s $20,000 appreciation is not pure gain.

The appreciation did not cover the cost of waiting.

If you factor in a small estimate for increased percentage based selling fees (like closing costs, average agent commissions etc.), the breakdown looks like this:

Waiting scenario	Example
Gross appreciation	$20,000
Estimated non-recoverable holding costs	-$31,800
Added selling costs on higher price	-$1,200
Estimated net effect of waiting	-$13,000

If the market improves less than hoped for, or not at all, the trade off is much worse.

That is the real risk of waiting.

A homeowner is not choosing between taking $500,000 now and $520,000 later.

And as Becky learned, a future sale price can be higher while the seller’s actual improvement is small or negative.

What Are My Holding Costs?

If you’re trying to decide the potential risks and benefits of waiting or selling, the first step is not guessing based on averages.

It is weighing your goals with your options.

Click here to walk through your options and see where your home fits into the current picture.

The Competition Risk of Waiting

As if the holding costs of a house are not enough, there is also the likelihood that many other sellers are waiting for a better market as well. So as it comes, sellers face much more competition.

Buyers can have more choices and this can limit the actual pricing power a seller gains, especially in the short term.

Like anything, the effects of this are by no means guaranteed, one way or the other. It is simply an additional risk to be factored into the decision.

The decision to sell or wait should consider future appreciation and future competition.

Bottom Line

Waiting is not a poor decision. But for a homeowner who is planning on or considering selling, waiting needs to clear a higher bar than “the market will be better next year”.

It is whether the improvement would be large enough to make sense for you.

What are my options? Talk to an expert here.

This article uses public housing-market data and single-family listing data for Maricopa and Pinal counties, referred to here as the Valley or the Greater Phoenix Area. Public data was used for historical and broader market context. Data was used for current single-family seller conditions. The $500,000 example is illustrative and is not a valuation, financial projection, or recommendation. Actual results depend on location, condition, price range, mortgage terms, ownership costs, buyer demand, competition, and seller timeline. Home appreciation figures in this article are based on the S&P Cotality Case-Shiller AZ-Phoenix Home Price Index, retrieved from the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis FRED database. The index is a monthly, non-seasonally adjusted repeat-sales home price index for the Phoenix area. Calendar-year appreciation rates were calculated by comparing the December index value from the prior year with the December index value from the stated year. The index is useful for broad Phoenix-area price trends, but it is not a property-specific valuation and may not reflect conditions for an individual home, neighborhood, property type, or price range.

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