Sellers, Be Careful With the First Number

For many sellers, the first list price when coming to the market feels flexible and low-pressure.

You can start high and see if you hit it big, if not you can always reduce later.

This approach has the potential to be harmful to the outcome a homeowner is looking for. In the Valley (Greater-Phoenix Market) the first number can affect how buyers compare your home, how agents and if agents present it and how quickly the listing gets meaningful attention.

The is not to say that homeowners always need to price aggressively and race to the bottom on price, quite the opposite actually. Pricing a home too high creates a gap between what the seller hopes for and what buyers are willing to act on. Once that gap is there, it takes more work to reduce it (usually in the form of price reductions) than if you got it right the first time.

The current Phoenix-area listing data shows: many homes are not staying at their original list price all the way through the selling process.

The Valley Pricing Picture Right Now

Based on the YTD Greater Phoenix residential data reviewed from 2026, we can see that the original list prices are starting higher and then moving lower to meet the market across active, pending and sold listings.

Homes that sold this year averaged a 5% drop from the original list price to the actual sale price, this does not tell the whole story however. These are the homes that made it to the finish line, and not all do. Many are still sitting active, or leaving the market unsold.

A seller may look at the 5% drop in original list price to final sale price and think “If I start high maybe I’ll only have to come down a little bit”. The big picture, according to the dataset, is that the homes that only had to come down a little bit are the ones that are selling, meaning their original list price was close to what buyers were expecting and addressed buyer questions like:

“Objectively, is this home priced fairly compared to others?”

“Is it worth seeing in person?”

“Could I get more in this area for that price?”

This is why the original list price matters, because it is not just the first number in a negotiation but rather the beginning of a market test.

For every listing put on the market so far this year, only 1 in every 5 to 6 listings is going pending (meaning has an accepted offer). And overall, 74% of listings this year are resulting in a successful sale, meaning that 26% are not.

All in all, the first list price should be strong enough to compete from the start. It needs to make sense when compared to the rest of the market, not just against the seller’s preferred number.

How Do I Set my Home Up to Win?

No one can guarantee results. But what can be achieved is the best positioning on the market, ensuring your home is competing and putting you in a spot where you can get the most for your home that the market is offering.

In other words, reaching the top of the market without overshooting it.

Want to know what the best positioning looks like for your home? Click Here to see what reaching the top of the market without overshooting it looks like for you.

“We Can Always Reduce Later” Has Limits

Reducing your price later can help if you’ve started too high or the market has moved while you’re on it.

However, reducing later is not the same as launching well from the start.

When a seller does decide to make a price adjustment, it’s possible the home has already been seen by the most motivated and interested buyers in the price range. Some of those buyers may have ruled it out, some may have found a different home and others may think something is wrong with it if it’s been on the market for a long time.

This does not mean a price reduction is a failure, it means there is a larger market test going on that sellers need to be aware of and this market test emphasizes a data-driven approach to the market and not one based on emotion or anything else that will not be valued from a buyer-side perspective.

A strong initial list price helps a seller maximize early attention and avoids spending the valuable, early part of the listing finding the market.

The Bottom Line

Hitting the market with confidence is almost always possible, it just takes the right time and preparation on the front end. Working with an expert who will educate you on the surrounding market so you can make the best decision for yourself is key. It’s like the relationship between a control tower and an airplane, your agent should be communicating the conditions and where you are in relevance to those conditions and how to stay in the best spot possible.

If you’re thinking about going to the market at some point, connect with an expert here– even if it’s just to answer some questions and they’ll be happy to help.

Common seller questions

Is pricing a home too high always a mistake?

Overpricing a home is the most common mistake a seller makes, if your goal is to sell it in a reasonable amount of time and get the most money for it. That being said, there are also homes that are extremely unique and will require a dynamic entry to the market to get the best price. In all situations, reading and responding to market feedback is key.

Is it bad to reduce the listing price later?

Not always. What you want to avoid is chasing the market downward, this is why initial positioning is so important. You want to be in front of the market to catch what is happening and what is going to happen. However if your initial price is too high and you wait too long to act on it, the most common thing a buyer thinks when they see a home reducing its price after 100+ DOM is “what’s wrong with it?”

Should I leave room to negotiate?

For most, it is usually better to get offers and then negotiate. Especially with an original-list-price to final-list-price ratio of ~97%. The mistake here is missing out on offers because you jumped over some buyer’s maximum budgets.

How do I know if my home price is too high?

Warning signs can include limited showing activity, repeated feedback about price, similar homes going pending while yours sits, or a growing gap between your price and competing listings. The best signal comes from comparing your home to active, pending, and sold homes that buyers are likely to view as alternatives.

This article is based on Greater Phoenix / Phoenix Valley residential market-metric data from the Year-through-May dataset, along with uploaded MLS listing exports for single-family homes, condos, townhomes, and related residential property types. The market-metric data was used for broad claims about inventory, days on market, original list price, current list price, final list price, sold price, and list-to-sale ratios. The MLS exports were used for listing-level pattern review.. Market conditions change, and individual pricing depends on location, condition, property type, price range, competition, buyer demand, and seller timeline.

Attune | Local Real Estate Guidance